System dynamics model for hospital waste characterization and generation in developing countries

Abstract

Waste management policy makers always face the problem of how to predict the future amount and composition of medical solid waste, which, in turn, helps to determine the most appropriate treatment, recycling and disposal strategy. An accurate prediction can assist in both the planning and design of medical solid waste management systems. Insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity are the main reasons for the scarcity of medical solid waste quantities and components historical records, which are so important in long-term system planning and short-term expansion programs. This article presents a new technique, using System Dynamics modeling, to predict generated medical solid waste in a developing urban area, based on a set of limited samples from Jenin District hospitals, Palestine. The findings of the model present the trend of medical solid waste generation together with its different components and indicate that a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties when traditional statistical least-squared regression methods are unable to handle such issues.