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|Title:||Preventing type 2 diabetes among Palestinians : comparing five future policy scenarios|
|Abstract:||Objective: This paper aims to provide estimates of
future diabetes prevalence in the West Bank, occupied
Palestinian territory (oPt), and to compare five future
policy scenarios for diabetes prevention.
Design: We created and refined a mathematical
Markov model that integrates population, obesity and
smoking trends to estimate future diabetes prevalence.
Model parameters were derived from the literature.
Diabetes incidence was estimated using DISMOD
software. We developed the model for the Palestinian
population based on data available for the period
2000–2010, and validated the model by comparing
predicted diabetes prevalence to subsequent actual
observed diabetes prevalence rates.
Setting: West Bank oPt.
Results: Palestinian diabetes mellitus prevalence
estimated by the model (for adults aged 25 or more)
was 9.7% in 2000, increasing to 15.3% by 2010.
Prevalence in men increased from 9.1% to 16.9% and
in women from 10.2% to 13.6%. Comparisons of the
model results with the observed prevalence in the
Palestinian Family Health Survey showed a close fit.
The model forecasts were 20.8% for 2020 and 23.4%
for 2030. A 2.8% reduction in diabetes prevalence
could be achieved if obesity trends start to decline by
5% in a 5-year period. If obesity prevalence was
reduced by 35% in 10 years, as suggested by the
WHO, diabetes prevalence might be decreased by 20%.
Conclusions: The model estimates an increase in the
prevalence of diabetes which poses a large challenge
to the health system. However, if bold but reasonable
action is taken, effective interventions could reduce
diabetes prevalence and hence the number of patients
|Description:||Abdullatif,Husseini:Community and Public Health Martin,O'Flaherty:University of Liverpool Simon,Capewell:University of Liverpool|
|Appears in Collections:||Fulltext Publications|
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